Trail Blazers vs Warriors prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 9
At a glance
The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) on Tuesday, March 9 at 11:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 57% chance to win and projects a 116-114 score (Trail Blazers – Warriors), about 230 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Trail Blazers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 3-0 for the Trail Blazers (current streaks: Warriors W2, Trail Blazers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers), Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Warriors 114 – 116 Trail Blazers, a margin of about 2.4 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
PORGS
Players to watch
Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsWarriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2reboundsRecent form
POR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129GS127-105L
111-108L131-122W
134-114W
119-114Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.
Team comparison
| POR | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 118.2 | Points scored / game | 115.5 |
| 114.7 | Points allowed / game | 116.4 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -0.8 |
| W3 | Current streak | W2 |
| 3-0 | Last 10 games | 2-3 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 0-1 home |
| 42-40 (-0.3) | Last season | 37-45 (-0.6) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Trail Blazers
Injury report Warriors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.