Warriors vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 27
At a glance
The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Wednesday, January 27 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 67% chance to win and projects a 112-117 score (Warriors – Trail Blazers), about 229 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Trail Blazers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Trail Blazers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Trail Blazers 117 – 112 Warriors, a margin of about 5.4 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
GSPOR
Players to watch
Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2reboundsTrail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsRecent form
GS
127-105L
111-108L
131-122W
134-114W
119-114POR
110-98L
128-118W124-83W128-120W136-129Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| GS | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-0 |
| 115.5 | Points scored / game | 118.2 |
| 116.4 | Points allowed / game | 114.7 |
| -0.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| W2 | Current streak | W3 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 3-0 |
| 2-2 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 37-45 (-0.6) | Last season | 42-40 (-0.3) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Warriors
Injury report Trail Blazers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.