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Warriors vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Friday, November 27

Fri, Nov 27 · 9:30 PM ETModa Center · KUNP 16, BlazerVision
Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors
2-3 · away
Projected score
112-118
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers
3-0 · home
30% win GSwin POR 70%
FavoritePOR
Projected margin6.4
Projected total230
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Friday, November 27 at 9:30 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 70% chance to win and projects a 112-118 score (Warriors – Trail Blazers), about 230 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Robert Williams III (Trail Blazers), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Trail Blazers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Trail Blazers 118 – 112 Warriors, a margin of about 6.4 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers will be without Robert Williams III or Chris Youngblood (and 1 other). The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Trail Blazers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)POR +3.0 / GS -0.8 per game
+3.8
Home-court advantageTrail Blazers at home
+2.3
InjuriesPOR: 3 out, 0 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable
+0.4
Expected marginfor Trail Blazers
+6.4

Scenarios

Trail Blazers win by 10+
39%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
27%
Warriors win by 10+
9%

Stat comparison Current season

GSPOR
115.5
Points scored / game
118.2
116.4
Points allowed / game
114.7
45.0 %
Field goal %
51.1 %
36.9 %
3-point %
38.9 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
43.7
82.2 %
Free throw %
70.8 %
43.8
Rebounds / game
46.3
25.6
Assists / game
30.7
9.6
Steals / game
8.3
3.8
Blocks / game
2.7
16.8
Turnovers / game
13.3

Players to watch

Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds
Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
GS
LLAL127-105LMEM111-108LPHX131-122WDEN134-114WMIN119-114
POR
WSAC110-98LGS128-118WPHX124-83WSAC128-120WLAL136-129

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 27GSthis gamePORJan 27GSupcomingPORMar 9PORupcomingGSMar 19PORupcomingGS

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
GS 30% · POR 70%
ESPN BPI
GS 31% · POR 70%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GSPOR
2-3Record3-0
115.5Points scored / game118.2
116.4Points allowed / game114.7
-0.8Adjusted margin / game+3.0
W2Current streakW3
2-3Last 10 games3-0
2-2 roadHome / road record1-0 home
37-45 (-0.6)Last season42-40 (-0.3)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Golden State Warriors Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut
Moses Moody GOut
Jimmy Butler III FOut
Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Portland Trail Blazers Injury report Trail Blazers

Robert Williams III COut
Chris Youngblood GOut
Shaedon Sharpe GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.