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Bucks vs Bulls prediction NBA · Friday, April 9

Fri, Apr 9 · 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

116-117

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · home

48% win MILwin CHI 52%

FavoriteCHI

Projected margin0.6

Projected total233

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Friday, April 9 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bulls a 52% chance to win and projects a 116-117 score (Bucks – Bulls), about 233 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Bulls L3, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Bucks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Bulls 117 – 116 Bucks, a margin of about 0.6 points in favor of the Bulls and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Bucks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton.

The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Bulls' offense (115.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Bucks' defense allows clearly fewer points (119.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / MIL -6.4 per game

-0.8

Home-court advantageBulls at home

+2.3

Back-to-backBucks played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-2.5

Expected marginfor Bulls

+0.6

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+

23%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Bucks win by 10+

20%

Stat comparison Current season

MILCHI

111.4

Points scored / game

115.6

119.0

Points allowed / game

124.1

44.9 %

Field goal %

42.1 %

34.0 %

3-point %

27.6 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

42.0

71.6 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

44.8

24.6

Assists / game

24.4

5.8

Steals / game

9.0

4.0

Blocks / game

4.8

16.8

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

Head-to-head

CHI lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 48% · CHI 52%

ESPN BPI

MIL 42% · CHI 58%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		CHI
1-4	Record	1-4
111.4	Points scored / game	115.6
119.0	Points allowed / game	124.1
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	-7.2
L1	Current streak	L3
1-4	Last 10 games	1-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	31-51 (-5.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.