Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Bucks vs Bulls prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 5

Tue, Jan 5 · 8:00 PM ETUnited Center · MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

118-115

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · home

58% win MILwin CHI 42%

FavoriteMIL

Projected margin2.6

Projected total233

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Tuesday, January 5 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bucks a 58% chance to win and projects a 118-115 score (Bucks – Bulls), about 233 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Bulls L3, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Bulls played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

The Bucks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Bulls 115 – 118 Bucks, a margin of about 2.6 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Bulls played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton.

The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Bulls' offense (115.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Bucks' defense allows clearly fewer points (119.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / MIL -6.4 per game

-0.8

Home-court advantageBulls at home

+2.3

Back-to-backBulls played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-2.5

Expected marginfor Bulls

-2.6

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+

16%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Bucks win by 10+

28%

Stat comparison Current season

MILCHI

111.4

Points scored / game

115.6

119.0

Points allowed / game

124.1

44.9 %

Field goal %

42.1 %

34.0 %

3-point %

27.6 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

42.0

71.6 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

44.8

24.6

Assists / game

24.4

5.8

Steals / game

9.0

4.0

Blocks / game

4.8

16.8

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

Head-to-head

CHI lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 58% · CHI 42%

ESPN BPI

MIL 45% · CHI 55%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MIL		CHI
1-4	Record	1-4
111.4	Points scored / game	115.6
119.0	Points allowed / game	124.1
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	-7.2
L1	Current streak	L3
1-4	Last 10 games	1-4
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	31-51 (-5.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.