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Bulls vs Bucks prediction NBA · Tuesday, April 6

Tue, Apr 6 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · away

Projected score

114-120

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

33% win CHIwin MIL 67%

FavoriteMIL

Projected margin5.6

Projected total234

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Tuesday, April 6 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bucks a 67% chance to win and projects a 114-120 score (Bulls – Bucks), about 234 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Bucks L1, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Bucks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Bucks 120 – 114 Bulls, a margin of about 5.6 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton.

The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Bulls' offense (115.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Bucks' defense allows clearly fewer points (119.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / CHI -7.2 per game

+0.8

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · CHI: 2 out, 2 questionable

+2.5

Expected marginfor Bucks

+5.6

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

36%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Bulls win by 10+

11%

Stat comparison Current season

CHIMIL

115.6

Points scored / game

111.4

124.1

Points allowed / game

119.0

42.1 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

27.6 %

3-point %

34.0 %

42.0

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

78.6 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

49.8

24.4

Assists / game

24.6

9.0

Steals / game

5.8

4.8

Blocks / game

4.0

17.8

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

CHI lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHI 33% · MIL 67%

ESPN BPI

CHI 46% · MIL 54%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHI		MIL
1-4	Record	1-4
115.6	Points scored / game	111.4
124.1	Points allowed / game	119.0
-7.2	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
L3	Current streak	L1
1-4	Last 10 games	1-4
1-2 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
31-51 (-5.2)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.