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Heat vs Hornets prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 30

Tue, Mar 30 · 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · DAZN CHA

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

112-115

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · home

43% win MIAwin CHA 57%

FavoriteCHA

Projected margin2.3

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Tuesday, March 30 at 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 57% chance to win and projects a 112-115 score (Heat – Hornets), about 227 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Hornets L1, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Heat played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets) and Kylan Boswell (Hornets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Hornets 115 – 112 Heat, a margin of about 2.3 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Heat played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others).

The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / MIA -0.6 per game

+1.6

Home-court advantageHornets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backHeat played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 0 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-3.3

Expected marginfor Hornets

+2.3

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+

27%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Heat win by 10+

16%

Stat comparison Current season

MIACHA

118.6

Points scored / game

111.6

119.2

Points allowed / game

110.3

45.3 %

Field goal %

41.7 %

31.7 %

3-point %

30.6 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

43.2

71.7 %

Free throw %

85.2 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

47.4

27.0

Assists / game

20.6

8.4

Steals / game

6.8

5.4

Blocks / game

5.2

14.2

Turnovers / game

19.0

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

Head-to-head

CHA lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 43% · CHA 57%

ESPN BPI

MIA 49% · CHA 51%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIA		CHA
1-4	Record	3-2
118.6	Points scored / game	111.6
119.2	Points allowed / game	110.3
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	+1.1
W1	Current streak	L1
1-4	Last 10 games	3-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	44-38 (+4.8)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.