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Hornets vs Heat prediction NBA · Sunday, December 27

Sun, Dec 27 · 6:00 PM ETKaseya Center
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets
3-2 · away
Projected score
110-116
Miami Heat
Miami Heat
1-4 · home
32% win CHAwin MIA 68%
FavoriteMIA
Projected margin5.9
Projected total227
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Sunday, December 27 at 6:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 68% chance to win and projects a 110-116 score (Hornets – Heat), about 227 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Heat W1, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Hornets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets) and Kylan Boswell (Hornets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Heat, but the Hornets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Heat 116 – 110 Hornets, a margin of about 5.9 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hornets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others).

  • The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / CHA +1.1 per game
-1.6
Home-court advantageHeat at home
+2.3
Back-to-backHornets played yesterday
+1.6
InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 1 questionable
+3.6
Expected marginfor Heat
+5.9

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+
37%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
Hornets win by 10+
10%

Stat comparison Current season

CHAMIA
111.6
Points scored / game
118.6
110.3
Points allowed / game
119.2
41.7 %
Field goal %
45.3 %
30.6 %
3-point %
31.7 %
43.2
3-pointers attempted / game
37.8
85.2 %
Free throw %
71.7 %
47.4
Rebounds / game
42.8
20.6
Assists / game
27.0
6.8
Steals / game
8.4
5.2
Blocks / game
5.4
19.0
Turnovers / game
14.2

Players to watch

Hornets
Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game
Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists
Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds
Heat
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game
Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
CHA
WBKN110-103LATL128-81WMIA115-110WWSH110-103LDET97-89
MIA
LMIN131-106LDET128-111LCHA115-110LDAL113-109WATL129-117

Head-to-head

CHA lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 24MIA110 - 115CHADec 27CHAthis gameMIAFeb 2CHAupcomingMIAMar 30MIAupcomingCHA

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
CHA 32% · MIA 68%
ESPN BPI
CHA 37% · MIA 63%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHAMIA
3-2Record1-4
111.6Points scored / game118.6
110.3Points allowed / game119.2
+1.1Adjusted margin / game-0.6
L1Current streakW1
3-2Last 10 games1-4
1-1 roadHome / road record0-3 home
44-38 (+4.8)Last season43-39 (+2.3)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Charlotte Hornets Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut
Coby White GOut
Grant Williams FOut
Kylan Boswell GOut
Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Miami Heat Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.