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Hornets vs Heat prediction NBA · Tuesday, February 2

Tue, Feb 2 · 7:30 PM ETKaseya Center · DAZN CHA

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 · away

Projected score

112-115

Miami Heat

1-4 · home

42% win CHAwin MIA 58%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin2.7

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Tuesday, February 2 at 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 58% chance to win and projects a 112-115 score (Hornets – Heat), about 227 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Heat W1, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Heat played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets) and Kylan Boswell (Hornets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

The Heat are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Heat 115 – 112 Hornets, a margin of about 2.7 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Heat played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others).

The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / CHA +1.1 per game

-1.6

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

Back-to-backHeat played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 1 questionable

+3.6

Expected marginfor Heat

+2.7

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

28%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Hornets win by 10+

16%

Stat comparison Current season

CHAMIA

111.6

Points scored / game

118.6

110.3

Points allowed / game

119.2

41.7 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

30.6 %

3-point %

31.7 %

43.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

85.2 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

47.4

Rebounds / game

42.8

20.6

Assists / game

27.0

6.8

Steals / game

8.4

5.2

Blocks / game

5.4

19.0

Turnovers / game

14.2

Players to watch

Hornets

Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game

Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists

Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHA

110-103L

128-81W

115-110W

110-103L

97-89

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

Head-to-head

CHA lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHA 42% · MIA 58%

ESPN BPI

CHA 41% · MIA 59%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHA		MIA
3-2	Record	1-4
111.6	Points scored / game	118.6
110.3	Points allowed / game	119.2
+1.1	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
L1	Current streak	W1
3-2	Last 10 games	1-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-3 home
44-38 (+4.8)	Last season	43-39 (+2.3)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut

Coby White GOut

Grant Williams FOut

Kylan Boswell GOut

Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.