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Pacers vs Bucks prediction NBA · Saturday, March 20

Sat, Mar 20 · 8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · MyMi, Bucks App, DAZN IND

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · away

Projected score

113-117

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · home

36% win INDwin MIL 64%

FavoriteMIL

Projected margin4.6

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Saturday, March 20 at 8:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Bucks a 64% chance to win and projects a 113-117 score (Pacers – Bucks), about 230 total points. This season, the Bucks are 1-2 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bucks and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Bucks L1, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) and Johnny Furphy (Pacers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Bucks, but the Pacers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Bucks 117 – 113 Pacers, a margin of about 4.6 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without T.J. McConnell or Ben Sheppard (and 2 others).

The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bucks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIL -6.4 / IND -4.7 per game

-1.7

Home-court advantageBucks at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIL: 0 out, 0 questionable · IND: 4 out, 1 questionable

+4.0

Expected marginfor Bucks

+4.6

Scenarios

Bucks win by 10+

33%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Pacers win by 10+

12%

Stat comparison Current season

INDMIL

113.2

Points scored / game

111.4

118.8

Points allowed / game

119.0

47.1 %

Field goal %

44.9 %

31.2 %

3-point %

34.0 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

41.2

72.7 %

Free throw %

71.6 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

49.8

29.4

Assists / game

24.6

6.4

Steals / game

5.8

4.8

Blocks / game

4.0

14.8

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

Head-to-head

MIL lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

IND 36% · MIL 64%

ESPN BPI

IND 68% · MIL 32%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

IND		MIL
2-3	Record	1-4
113.2	Points scored / game	111.4
118.8	Points allowed / game	119.0
-4.7	Adjusted margin / game	-6.4
L2	Current streak	L1
2-3	Last 10 games	1-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
19-63 (-8.0)	Last season	32-50 (-6.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pacers

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Ivica Zubac CDay-To-Day

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.