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Bucks vs Pacers prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 13

Wed, Jan 13 · 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · DAZN IND, MyMi, Bucks App

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

113-114

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

47% win MILwin IND 53%

FavoriteIND

Projected margin1.1

Projected total228

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Wednesday, January 13 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pacers a 53% chance to win and projects a 113-114 score (Bucks – Pacers), about 228 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Pacers L2, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Bucks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) and Johnny Furphy (Pacers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Pacers 114 – 113 Bucks, a margin of about 1.1 points in favor of the Pacers and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Bucks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others).

The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / MIL -6.4 per game

+1.7

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

Back-to-backBucks played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-4.5

Expected marginfor Pacers

+1.1

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

24%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Bucks win by 10+

19%

Stat comparison Current season

MILIND

111.4

Points scored / game

113.2

119.0

Points allowed / game

118.8

44.9 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

34.0 %

3-point %

31.2 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

71.6 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

44.0

24.6

Assists / game

29.4

5.8

Steals / game

6.4

4.0

Blocks / game

4.8

16.8

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

MIL lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 47% · IND 53%

ESPN BPI

MIL 22% · IND 78%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		IND
1-4	Record	2-3
111.4	Points scored / game	113.2
119.0	Points allowed / game	118.8
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
L1	Current streak	L2
1-4	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.