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Bucks vs Pacers prediction NBA · Saturday, January 9

Sat, Jan 9 · 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · MyMi, Bucks App, DAZN IND

Milwaukee Bucks

1-4 · away

Projected score

115-116

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

50% win MILwin IND 50%

FavoriteIND

Projected margin0.0

Projected total230

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Milwaukee Bucks (1-4) on Saturday, January 9 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pacers a 50% chance to win and projects a 115-116 score (Bucks – Pacers), about 230 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Bucks are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 1-4 for the Bucks (current streaks: Pacers L2, Bucks L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) and Johnny Furphy (Pacers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Pacers 116 – 115 Bucks, a margin of about 0.0 points in favor of the Pacers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without T.J. McConnell or Ben Sheppard (and 2 others).

The Bucks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / MIL -6.4 per game

+1.7

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

InjuriesIND: 4 out, 1 questionable · MIL: 0 out, 0 questionable

-4.0

Expected marginfor Pacers

+0.0

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

21%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Bucks win by 10+

21%

Stat comparison Current season

MILIND

111.4

Points scored / game

113.2

119.0

Points allowed / game

118.8

44.9 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

34.0 %

3-point %

31.2 %

41.2

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

71.6 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

49.8

Rebounds / game

44.0

24.6

Assists / game

29.4

5.8

Steals / game

6.4

4.0

Blocks / game

4.8

16.8

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Bucks

Tyler HerroG · #1123.4pts / game

Tyler HerroG · #114.6assists

Kel'el WareC · #98.4rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIL

128-116L

132-125L

127-116W

110-102L

132-100

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

MIL lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIL 50% · IND 50%

ESPN BPI

MIL 23% · IND 77%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIL		IND
1-4	Record	2-3
111.4	Points scored / game	113.2
119.0	Points allowed / game	118.8
-6.4	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
L1	Current streak	L2
1-4	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
32-50 (-6.2)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Injury report Pacers

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Ivica Zubac CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.