Login
Match analysisToday's gamesNBA standingsEuroLeagueTrack record
← Back

Lakers vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 16

Tue, Mar 16 · 10:00 PM ETModa Center · KUNP 16, BlazerVision, Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · away
Projected score
114-117
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers
3-0 · home
43% win LALwin POR 57%
FavoritePOR
Projected margin2.2
Projected total231
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Tuesday, March 16 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 57% chance to win and projects a 114-117 score (Lakers – Trail Blazers), about 231 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Trail Blazers 117 – 114 Lakers, a margin of about 2.2 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Trail Blazers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)POR +3.0 / LAL +3.5 per game
-0.5
Home-court advantageTrail Blazers at home
+2.3
InjuriesPOR: 2 out, 1 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 2 questionable
+0.4
Expected marginfor Trail Blazers
+2.2

Scenarios

Trail Blazers win by 10+
27%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Lakers win by 10+
17%

Stat comparison Current season

LALPOR
118.4
Points scored / game
118.2
114.3
Points allowed / game
114.7
52.9 %
Field goal %
51.1 %
39.2 %
3-point %
38.9 %
36.2
3-pointers attempted / game
43.7
79.1 %
Free throw %
70.8 %
38.0
Rebounds / game
46.3
24.0
Assists / game
30.7
10.8
Steals / game
8.3
5.8
Blocks / game
2.7
16.6
Turnovers / game
13.3

Players to watch

Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds
Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87
POR
WSAC110-98LGS128-118WPHX124-83WSAC128-120WLAL136-129

Head-to-head

POR lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 27POR136 - 129LALNov 6PORupcomingLALJan 13LALupcomingPORMar 16LALthis gamePOR

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
LAL 43% · POR 57%
ESPN BPI
LAL 45% · POR 55%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LALPOR
4-1Record3-0
118.4Points scored / game118.2
114.3Points allowed / game114.7
+3.5Adjusted margin / game+3.0
W1Current streakW3
4-1Last 10 games3-0
2-0 roadHome / road record1-0 home
53-29 (+1.8)Last season42-40 (-0.3)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day
Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Portland Trail Blazers Injury report Trail Blazers

Chris Youngblood GOut
Shaedon Sharpe GOut
Robert Williams III CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.