Nuggets vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 10
At a glance
The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Wednesday, March 10 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 58% chance to win and projects a 114-116 score (Nuggets – Trail Blazers), about 230 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Trail Blazers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Trail Blazers, but the Nuggets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Trail Blazers 116 – 114 Nuggets, a margin of about 2.5 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DENPOR
Players to watch
Nuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game
Nikola JokicC · #159.0assistsNikola JokicC · #1510.5reboundsTrail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsRecent form
DEN
121-106L
96-84W
141-135 OTL
134-114W104-91POR
110-98L128-118W
124-83W128-120W136-129Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
POR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| DEN | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 3-0 |
| 119.2 | Points scored / game | 118.2 |
| 116.2 | Points allowed / game | 114.7 |
| +2.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| W1 | Current streak | W3 |
| 2-2 | Last 10 games | 3-0 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 54-28 (+5.2) | Last season | 42-40 (-0.3) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Nuggets
Injury report Trail Blazers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.