Trail Blazers vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Sunday, January 31
At a glance
The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) on Sunday, January 31 at 8:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 54% chance to win and projects a 116-115 score (Trail Blazers – Nuggets), about 230 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Trail Blazers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 3-0 for the Trail Blazers (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Trail Blazers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Nuggets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers), Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Nuggets 115 – 116 Trail Blazers, a margin of about 1.1 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
PORDEN
Players to watch
Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsNuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game
Nikola JokicC · #159.0assistsNikola JokicC · #1510.5reboundsRecent form
POR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129DEN121-106L
96-84W
141-135 OTL134-114W104-91Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
POR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| POR | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | Record | 2-2 |
| 118.2 | Points scored / game | 119.2 |
| 114.7 | Points allowed / game | 116.2 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.6 |
| W3 | Current streak | W1 |
| 3-0 | Last 10 games | 2-2 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 1-1 home |
| 42-40 (-0.3) | Last season | 54-28 (+5.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Trail Blazers
Injury report Nuggets
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.