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Trail Blazers vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Monday, November 2

Mon, Nov 2 · 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · NBA League Pass, KUNP 16, BlazerVision, ALT2/KTVD

Portland Trail Blazers

3-0 · away

Projected score

116-117

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

48% win PORwin DEN 52%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin0.5

Projected total232

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) on Monday, November 2 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 52% chance to win and projects a 116-117 score (Trail Blazers – Nuggets), about 232 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Trail Blazers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 3-0 for the Trail Blazers (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Trail Blazers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers), Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Nuggets 117 – 116 Trail Blazers, a margin of about 0.5 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / POR +3.0 per game

-0.4

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · POR: 2 out, 1 questionable

-1.5

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+0.5

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

22%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Trail Blazers win by 10+

20%

Stat comparison Current season

PORDEN

118.2

Points scored / game

119.2

114.7

Points allowed / game

116.2

51.1 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

38.9 %

3-point %

32.8 %

43.7

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

70.8 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

46.3

Rebounds / game

44.5

30.7

Assists / game

26.0

8.3

Steals / game

10.0

2.7

Blocks / game

4.8

13.3

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Trail Blazers

Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game

Ja MorantG · #16.3assists

Donovan ClinganC · #239.3rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

POR

110-98L

128-118W

124-83W

128-120W

136-129

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

POR 48% · DEN 52%

ESPN BPI

POR 45% · DEN 55%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

POR		DEN
3-0	Record	2-2
118.2	Points scored / game	119.2
114.7	Points allowed / game	116.2
+3.0	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
W3	Current streak	W1
3-0	Last 10 games	2-2
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
42-40 (-0.3)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Trail Blazers

Chris Youngblood GOut

Shaedon Sharpe GOut

Robert Williams III CDay-To-Day

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.