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Nuggets vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Tuesday, December 15

Tue, Dec 15 · 11:00 PM ETModa Center · NBC

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

114-118

Portland Trail Blazers

3-0 · home

37% win DENwin POR 63%

FavoritePOR

Projected margin4.1

Projected total232

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Tuesday, December 15 at 11:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 63% chance to win and projects a 114-118 score (Nuggets – Trail Blazers), about 232 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Trail Blazers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Trail Blazers 118 – 114 Nuggets, a margin of about 4.1 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Trail Blazers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)POR +3.0 / DEN +2.6 per game

+0.4

Home-court advantageTrail Blazers at home

+2.3

InjuriesPOR: 2 out, 1 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.5

Expected marginfor Trail Blazers

+4.1

Scenarios

Trail Blazers win by 10+

32%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Nuggets win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

DENPOR

119.2

Points scored / game

118.2

116.2

Points allowed / game

114.7

45.8 %

Field goal %

51.1 %

32.8 %

3-point %

38.9 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

43.7

79.6 %

Free throw %

70.8 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

46.3

26.0

Assists / game

30.7

10.0

Steals / game

8.3

4.8

Blocks / game

2.7

15.3

Turnovers / game

13.3

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Trail Blazers

Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game

Ja MorantG · #16.3assists

Donovan ClinganC · #239.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

POR

110-98L

128-118W

124-83W

128-120W

136-129

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 37% · POR 63%

ESPN BPI

DEN 43% · POR 57%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		POR
2-2	Record	3-0
119.2	Points scored / game	118.2
116.2	Points allowed / game	114.7
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
W1	Current streak	W3
2-2	Last 10 games	3-0
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	42-40 (-0.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Trail Blazers

Chris Youngblood GOut

Shaedon Sharpe GOut

Robert Williams III CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.