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Rockets vs Warriors prediction NBA · Sunday, March 7

Sun, Mar 7 · 10:00 PM ETChase Center · NBC
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
5-0 · away
Projected score
116-111
Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors
2-3 · home
66% win HOUwin GS 34%
FavoriteHOU
Projected margin5.2
Projected total227
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Sunday, March 7 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 66% chance to win and projects a 116-111 score (Rockets – Warriors), about 227 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Warriors W2, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Rockets, but the Warriors have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Warriors 111 – 116 Rockets, a margin of about 5.2 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other).

  • The overall strength gap (-0.8 vs +6.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors
Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / HOU +6.7 per game
-7.5
Home-court advantageWarriors at home
+2.3
InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable
0.0
Expected marginfor Warriors
-5.2

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+
11%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Rockets win by 10+
35%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUGS
117.5
Points scored / game
115.5
109.7
Points allowed / game
116.4
51.7 %
Field goal %
45.0 %
40.4 %
3-point %
36.9 %
32.2
3-pointers attempted / game
39.0
84.7 %
Free throw %
82.2 %
44.8
Rebounds / game
43.8
28.2
Assists / game
25.6
10.2
Steals / game
9.6
6.0
Blocks / game
3.8
15.8
Turnovers / game
16.8

Players to watch

Rockets
Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game
Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists
Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds
Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
HOU
WDAL128-110WSA114-110WATL121-114WATL120-110WMIL132-100
GS
LLAL127-105LMEM111-108LPHX131-122WDEN134-114WMIN119-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 11GSupcomingHOUDec 30HOUupcomingGSMar 1GSupcomingHOUMar 7HOUthis gameGS

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
HOU 66% · GS 34%
ESPN BPI
HOU 53% · GS 48%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOUGS
5-0Record2-3
117.5Points scored / game115.5
109.7Points allowed / game116.4
+6.7Adjusted margin / game-0.8
W5Current streakW2
5-0Last 10 games2-3
3-0 roadHome / road record0-1 home
52-30 (+5.2)Last season37-45 (-0.6)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Houston Rockets Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut
Marcus Smart GOut
Steven Adams COut
Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Golden State Warriors Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut
Moses Moody GOut
Jimmy Butler III FOut
Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.