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Warriors vs Rockets prediction NBA · Monday, March 1

Mon, Mar 1 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston)

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · away

Projected score

109-117

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

26% win GSwin HOU 74%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin8.2

Projected total226

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Monday, March 1 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 74% chance to win and projects a 109-117 score (Warriors – Rockets), about 226 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Rockets W5, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Rockets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Rockets dominate this matchup. The model projects Rockets 117 – 109 Warriors, a margin of about 8.2 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+6.7 vs -0.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / GS -0.8 per game

+7.5

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backRockets played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Rockets

+8.2

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

44%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

Warriors win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

GSHOU

115.5

Points scored / game

117.5

116.4

Points allowed / game

109.7

45.0 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

36.9 %

3-point %

40.4 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

82.2 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

43.8

Rebounds / game

44.8

25.6

Assists / game

28.2

9.6

Steals / game

10.2

3.8

Blocks / game

6.0

16.8

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

GS 26% · HOU 74%

ESPN BPI

GS 41% · HOU 59%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GS		HOU
2-3	Record	5-0
115.5	Points scored / game	117.5
116.4	Points allowed / game	109.7
-0.8	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
W2	Current streak	W5
2-3	Last 10 games	5-0
2-2 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
37-45 (-0.6)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.