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Rockets vs Warriors prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 30

Wed, Dec 30 · 10:00 PM ETChase Center · NBA TV

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

115-111

Golden State Warriors

2-3 · home

61% win HOUwin GS 39%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin3.6

Projected total226

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Wednesday, December 30 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 61% chance to win and projects a 115-111 score (Rockets – Warriors), about 226 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Warriors W2, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Rockets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Rockets, but the Warriors have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Warriors 111 – 115 Rockets, a margin of about 3.6 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (-0.8 vs +6.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Warriors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)GS -0.8 / HOU +6.7 per game

-7.5

Home-court advantageWarriors at home

+2.3

Back-to-backRockets played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesGS: 3 out, 1 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Warriors

-3.6

Scenarios

Warriors win by 10+

14%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Rockets win by 10+

30%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUGS

117.5

Points scored / game

115.5

109.7

Points allowed / game

116.4

51.7 %

Field goal %

45.0 %

40.4 %

3-point %

36.9 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

84.7 %

Free throw %

82.2 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

43.8

28.2

Assists / game

25.6

10.2

Steals / game

9.6

6.0

Blocks / game

3.8

15.8

Turnovers / game

16.8

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Warriors

Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game

Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists

Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

127-105L

111-108L

131-122W

134-114W

119-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 61% · GS 39%

ESPN BPI

HOU 63% · GS 37%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		GS
5-0	Record	2-3
117.5	Points scored / game	115.5
109.7	Points allowed / game	116.4
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	-0.8
W5	Current streak	W2
5-0	Last 10 games	2-3
3-0 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	37-45 (-0.6)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut

Moses Moody GOut

Jimmy Butler III FOut

Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.