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Warriors vs Rockets prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 11

Wed, Nov 11 · 9:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · ESPN
Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors
2-3 · away
Projected score
109-118
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
5-0 · home
22% win GSwin HOU 78%
FavoriteHOU
Projected margin9.8
Projected total227
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Wednesday, November 11 at 9:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 78% chance to win and projects a 109-118 score (Warriors – Rockets), about 227 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Rockets W5, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Rockets start with a clear edge. The model projects Rockets 118 – 109 Warriors, a margin of about 9.8 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).

  • The overall strength gap (+6.7 vs -0.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / GS -0.8 per game
+7.5
Home-court advantageRockets at home
+2.3
InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · GS: 3 out, 1 questionable
0.0
Expected marginfor Rockets
+9.8

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+
49%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
23%
Warriors win by 10+
6%

Stat comparison Current season

GSHOU
115.5
Points scored / game
117.5
116.4
Points allowed / game
109.7
45.0 %
Field goal %
51.7 %
36.9 %
3-point %
40.4 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
32.2
82.2 %
Free throw %
84.7 %
43.8
Rebounds / game
44.8
25.6
Assists / game
28.2
9.6
Steals / game
10.2
3.8
Blocks / game
6.0
16.8
Turnovers / game
15.8

Players to watch

Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2rebounds
Rockets
Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game
Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists
Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
GS
LLAL127-105LMEM111-108LPHX131-122WDEN134-114WMIN119-114
HOU
WDAL128-110WSA114-110WATL121-114WATL120-110WMIL132-100

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 11GSthis gameHOUDec 30HOUupcomingGSMar 1GSupcomingHOUMar 7HOUupcomingGS

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
GS 22% · HOU 78%
ESPN BPI
GS 24% · HOU 76%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

GSHOU
2-3Record5-0
115.5Points scored / game117.5
116.4Points allowed / game109.7
-0.8Adjusted margin / game+6.7
W2Current streakW5
2-3Last 10 games5-0
2-2 roadHome / road record2-0 home
37-45 (-0.6)Last season52-30 (+5.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Golden State Warriors Injury report Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis COut
Moses Moody GOut
Jimmy Butler III FOut
Gui Santos FDay-To-Day

Houston Rockets Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut
Marcus Smart GOut
Steven Adams COut
Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.