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Spurs vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Thursday, February 18

Thu, Feb 18 · 7:30 PM ETTarget Center · Prime Video

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

113-115

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · home

42% win SAwin MIN 58%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin2.4

Projected total228

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Thursday, February 18 at 7:30 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 58% chance to win and projects a 113-115 score (Spurs – Timberwolves), about 228 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Spurs played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Timberwolves 115 – 113 Spurs, a margin of about 2.4 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The Spurs need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / SA +6.6 per game

-1.5

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

Back-to-backSpurs played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

+2.4

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

27%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Spurs win by 10+

16%

Stat comparison Current season

SAMIN

118.9

Points scored / game

118.7

111.1

Points allowed / game

112.6

46.0 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

34.6 %

3-point %

38.4 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

78.3 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

51.6

28.2

Assists / game

27.0

9.8

Steals / game

9.2

6.6

Blocks / game

4.4

12.8

Turnovers / game

16.2

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 42% · MIN 58%

ESPN BPI

SA 54% · MIN 46%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

SA		MIN
3-2	Record	3-2
118.9	Points scored / game	118.7
111.1	Points allowed / game	112.6
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+5.2
W3	Current streak	L2
3-2	Last 10 games	3-2
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	49-33 (+3.4)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.