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Timberwolves vs Spurs prediction NBA · Friday, January 22

Fri, Jan 22 · 9:30 PM ETFrost Bank Center · ESPN

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · away

Projected score

113-116

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

38% win MINwin SA 62%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin3.8

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Friday, January 22 at 9:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 62% chance to win and projects a 113-116 score (Timberwolves – Spurs), about 229 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Spurs W3, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Spurs are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Spurs 116 – 113 Timberwolves, a margin of about 3.8 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.

The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / MIN +5.2 per game

+1.5

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Spurs

+3.8

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

31%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Timberwolves win by 10+

14%

Stat comparison Current season

MINSA

118.7

Points scored / game

118.9

112.6

Points allowed / game

111.1

47.3 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

38.4 %

3-point %

34.6 %

40.6

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

62.7 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

51.6

Rebounds / game

45.0

27.0

Assists / game

28.2

9.2

Steals / game

9.8

4.4

Blocks / game

6.6

16.2

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIN 38% · SA 62%

ESPN BPI

MIN 37% · SA 63%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIN		SA
3-2	Record	3-2
118.7	Points scored / game	118.9
112.6	Points allowed / game	111.1
+5.2	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L2	Current streak	W3
3-2	Last 10 games	3-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
49-33 (+3.4)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.