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Spurs vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Sunday, January 3

Sun, Jan 3 · 7:00 PM ETTarget Center · NBA TV, DAZN MIN, DAZN SAS

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

114-113

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · home

52% win SAwin MIN 48%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin0.8

Projected total228

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Sunday, January 3 at 7:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 52% chance to win and projects a 114-113 score (Spurs – Timberwolves), about 228 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Timberwolves played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Timberwolves 113 – 114 Spurs, a margin of about 0.8 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / SA +6.6 per game

-1.5

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

Back-to-backTimberwolves played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

0.0

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

-0.8

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

19%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Spurs win by 10+

23%

Stat comparison Current season

SAMIN

118.9

Points scored / game

118.7

111.1

Points allowed / game

112.6

46.0 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

34.6 %

3-point %

38.4 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

78.3 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

51.6

28.2

Assists / game

27.0

9.8

Steals / game

9.2

6.6

Blocks / game

4.4

12.8

Turnovers / game

16.2

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 52% · MIN 48%

ESPN BPI

SA 56% · MIN 44%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		MIN
3-2	Record	3-2
118.9	Points scored / game	118.7
111.1	Points allowed / game	112.6
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+5.2
W3	Current streak	L2
3-2	Last 10 games	3-2
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	49-33 (+3.4)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.