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Knicks vs Pistons prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 17

Wed, Feb 17 · 7:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · ESPN

New York Knicks

2-3 · away

Projected score

109-114

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · home

36% win NYwin DET 64%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin4.6

Projected total223

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Wednesday, February 17 at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 64% chance to win and projects a 109-114 score (Knicks – Pistons), about 223 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Pistons W1, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Pistons, but the Knicks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Pistons 114 – 109 Knicks, a margin of about 4.6 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

The Knicks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / NY +3.8 per game

+2.6

Home-court advantagePistons at home

+2.3

InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable

-0.3

Expected marginfor Pistons

+4.6

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+

33%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Knicks win by 10+

12%

Stat comparison Current season

NYDET

114.5

Points scored / game

115.4

110.0

Points allowed / game

107.8

42.2 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

35.9 %

3-point %

37.9 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

36.4

75.8 %

Free throw %

74.4 %

48.2

Rebounds / game

46.8

26.8

Assists / game

27.0

7.2

Steals / game

8.0

4.4

Blocks / game

7.2

14.8

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

Head-to-head

NY lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

NY 36% · DET 64%

ESPN BPI

NY 43% · DET 57%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NY		DET
2-3	Record	4-1
114.5	Points scored / game	115.4
110.0	Points allowed / game	107.8
+3.8	Adjusted margin / game	+6.5
W2	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	4-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
53-29 (+6.3)	Last season	60-22 (+8.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.