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Knicks vs Pistons prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 3

Wed, Feb 3 · 7:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · ESPN
New York Knicks
New York Knicks
2-3 · away
Projected score
109-112
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons
4-1 · home
41% win NYwin DET 59%
FavoriteDET
Projected margin3.0
Projected total221
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Wednesday, February 3 at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 59% chance to win and projects a 109-112 score (Knicks – Pistons), about 221 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Pistons W1, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pistons played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

The Pistons are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pistons 112 – 109 Knicks, a margin of about 3.0 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 221 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

  • The Knicks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons
Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / NY +3.8 per game
+2.6
Home-court advantagePistons at home
+2.3
Back-to-backPistons played yesterday
-1.6
InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable
-0.3
Expected marginfor Pistons
+3.0

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+
29%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Knicks win by 10+
15%

Stat comparison Current season

NYDET
114.5
Points scored / game
115.4
110.0
Points allowed / game
107.8
42.2 %
Field goal %
45.9 %
35.9 %
3-point %
37.9 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
36.4
75.8 %
Free throw %
74.4 %
48.2
Rebounds / game
46.8
26.8
Assists / game
27.0
7.2
Steals / game
8.0
4.4
Blocks / game
7.2
14.8
Turnovers / game
15.6

Players to watch

Knicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds
Pistons
Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game
Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists
Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
NY
LPHI106-100LBOS107-103LORL111-102WDET111-97WCHI133-127
DET
WBOS121-113WMIA128-111WPHI106-93LNY111-97WCHA97-89

Head-to-head

NY lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 27DET97 - 111NYFeb 3NYthis gameDETFeb 17NYupcomingDETApr 9DETupcomingNY

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
NY 41% · DET 59%
ESPN BPI
NY 45% · DET 55%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NYDET
2-3Record4-1
114.5Points scored / game115.4
110.0Points allowed / game107.8
+3.8Adjusted margin / game+6.5
W2Current streakW1
2-3Last 10 games4-1
1-1 roadHome / road record2-0 home
53-29 (+6.3)Last season60-22 (+8.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayYes

New York Knicks Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Detroit Pistons Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut
Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.