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Jazz vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Sunday, February 7

Sun, Feb 7 · 3:30 PM ETTarget Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
1-4 · away
Projected score
108-124
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-2 · home
10% win UTAHwin MIN 90%
FavoriteMIN
Projected margin15.7
Projected total232
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Utah Jazz (1-4) on Sunday, February 7 at 3:30 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 90% chance to win and projects a 108-124 score (Jazz – Timberwolves), about 232 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Jazz are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 1-4 for the Jazz (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Jazz L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 15% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Timberwolves and the Jazz played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz), Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Timberwolves dominate this matchup. The model projects Timberwolves 124 – 108 Jazz, a margin of about 15.7 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Timberwolves and the Jazz played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other).

  • The overall strength gap (+5.2 vs -7.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / UTAH -7.0 per game
+12.2
Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home
+2.3
InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · UTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable
+1.3
Expected marginfor Timberwolves
+15.7

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+
68%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
15%
Jazz win by 10+
2%

Stat comparison Current season

UTAHMIN
116.1
Points scored / game
118.7
124.3
Points allowed / game
112.6
45.4 %
Field goal %
47.3 %
33.9 %
3-point %
38.4 %
34.8
3-pointers attempted / game
40.6
76.6 %
Free throw %
62.7 %
46.8
Rebounds / game
51.6
26.8
Assists / game
27.0
5.0
Steals / game
9.2
6.4
Blocks / game
4.4
17.0
Turnovers / game
16.2

Players to watch

Jazz
Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game
Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists
Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
UTAH
LMEM123-103WNO120-119LLAL132-123LMEM110-105LSA117-111 OT
MIN
WMIA131-106WORL115-93WTOR117-94LCLE127-125 OTLGS119-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 8UTAHupcomingMINDec 14MINupcomingUTAHFeb 7UTAHthis gameMINMar 18MINupcomingUTAH

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
UTAH 10% · MIN 90%
ESPN BPI
UTAH 21% · MIN 79%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

UTAHMIN
1-4Record3-2
116.1Points scored / game118.7
124.3Points allowed / game112.6
-7.0Adjusted margin / game+5.2
L3Current streakL2
1-4Last 10 games3-2
0-1 roadHome / road record1-1 home
22-60 (-8.4)Last season49-33 (+3.4)
YesPlayed yesterdayYes

Utah Jazz Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut
Trey Alexander GOut
Jusuf Nurkic COut
Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut
Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.