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Timberwolves vs Jazz prediction NBA · Thursday, March 18

Thu, Mar 18 · 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-2 · away
Projected score
123-110
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz
1-4 · home
85% win MINwin UTAH 15%
FavoriteMIN
Projected margin12.7
Projected total232
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Thursday, March 18 at 9:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 85% chance to win and projects a 123-110 score (Timberwolves – Jazz), about 232 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Jazz L3, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 19% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Jazz played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Timberwolves start with a clear edge. The model projects Jazz 110 – 123 Timberwolves, a margin of about 12.7 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Jazz played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.

  • The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs +5.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz
Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / MIN +5.2 per game
-12.2
Home-court advantageJazz at home
+2.3
Back-to-backJazz played yesterday
-1.6
InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable
-1.3
Expected marginfor Jazz
-12.7

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+
3%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
19%
Timberwolves win by 10+
59%

Stat comparison Current season

MINUTAH
118.7
Points scored / game
116.1
112.6
Points allowed / game
124.3
47.3 %
Field goal %
45.4 %
38.4 %
3-point %
33.9 %
40.6
3-pointers attempted / game
34.8
62.7 %
Free throw %
76.6 %
51.6
Rebounds / game
46.8
27.0
Assists / game
26.8
9.2
Steals / game
5.0
4.4
Blocks / game
6.4
16.2
Turnovers / game
17.0

Players to watch

Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds
Jazz
Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game
Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists
Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIN
WMIA131-106WORL115-93WTOR117-94LCLE127-125 OTLGS119-114
UTAH
LMEM123-103WNO120-119LLAL132-123LMEM110-105LSA117-111 OT

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 8UTAHupcomingMINDec 14MINupcomingUTAHFeb 7UTAHupcomingMINMar 18MINthis gameUTAH

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
MIN 85% · UTAH 15%
ESPN BPI
MIN 72% · UTAH 28%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MINUTAH
3-2Record1-4
118.7Points scored / game116.1
112.6Points allowed / game124.3
+5.2Adjusted margin / game-7.0
L2Current streakL3
3-2Last 10 games1-4
2-1 roadHome / road record1-3 home
49-33 (+3.4)Last season22-60 (-8.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayYes

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut
Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Utah Jazz Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut
Trey Alexander GOut
Jusuf Nurkic COut
Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.