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Timberwolves vs Jazz prediction NBA · Monday, December 14

Mon, Dec 14 · 9:00 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+, DAZN MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · away

Projected score

123-111

Utah Jazz

1-4 · home

81% win MINwin UTAH 19%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin11.1

Projected total234

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Monday, December 14 at 9:00 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 81% chance to win and projects a 123-111 score (Timberwolves – Jazz), about 234 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Jazz L3, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Timberwolves dominate this matchup. The model projects Jazz 111 – 123 Timberwolves, a margin of about 11.1 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.

The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs +5.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / MIN +5.2 per game

-12.2

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Jazz

-11.1

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

21%

Timberwolves win by 10+

54%

Stat comparison Current season

MINUTAH

118.7

Points scored / game

116.1

112.6

Points allowed / game

124.3

47.3 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

38.4 %

3-point %

33.9 %

40.6

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

62.7 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

51.6

Rebounds / game

46.8

27.0

Assists / game

26.8

9.2

Steals / game

5.0

4.4

Blocks / game

6.4

16.2

Turnovers / game

17.0

Players to watch

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIN 81% · UTAH 19%

ESPN BPI

MIN 66% · UTAH 34%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIN		UTAH
3-2	Record	1-4
118.7	Points scored / game	116.1
112.6	Points allowed / game	124.3
+5.2	Adjusted margin / game	-7.0
L2	Current streak	L3
3-2	Last 10 games	1-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-3 home
49-33 (+3.4)	Last season	22-60 (-8.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.