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Timberwolves vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Tuesday, February 2

Tue, Feb 2 · 11:00 PM ETModa Center · NBC, DAZN MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · away

Projected score

116-115

Portland Trail Blazers

3-0 · home

51% win MINwin POR 49%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin0.2

Projected total231

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Tuesday, February 2 at 11:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 51% chance to win and projects a 116-115 score (Timberwolves – Trail Blazers), about 231 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Trail Blazers 115 – 116 Timberwolves, a margin of about 0.2 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Trail Blazers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)POR +3.0 / MIN +5.2 per game

-2.2

Home-court advantageTrail Blazers at home

+2.3

InjuriesPOR: 2 out, 1 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable

-0.3

Expected marginfor Trail Blazers

-0.2

Scenarios

Trail Blazers win by 10+

21%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Timberwolves win by 10+

22%

Stat comparison Current season

MINPOR

118.7

Points scored / game

118.2

112.6

Points allowed / game

114.7

47.3 %

Field goal %

51.1 %

38.4 %

3-point %

38.9 %

40.6

3-pointers attempted / game

43.7

62.7 %

Free throw %

70.8 %

51.6

Rebounds / game

46.3

27.0

Assists / game

30.7

9.2

Steals / game

8.3

4.4

Blocks / game

2.7

16.2

Turnovers / game

13.3

Players to watch

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Trail Blazers

Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game

Ja MorantG · #16.3assists

Donovan ClinganC · #239.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

POR

110-98L

128-118W

124-83W

128-120W

136-129

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIN 51% · POR 49%

ESPN BPI

MIN 54% · POR 46%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIN		POR
3-2	Record	3-0
118.7	Points scored / game	118.2
112.6	Points allowed / game	114.7
+5.2	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
L2	Current streak	W3
3-2	Last 10 games	3-0
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
49-33 (+3.4)	Last season	42-40 (-0.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Injury report Trail Blazers

Chris Youngblood GOut

Shaedon Sharpe GOut

Robert Williams III CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.