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Trail Blazers vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Monday, November 16

Mon, Nov 16 · 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · KUNP 16, BlazerVision, DAZN MIN
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers
3-0 · away
Projected score
113-118
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-2 · home
35% win PORwin MIN 65%
FavoriteMIN
Projected margin4.8
Projected total231
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) on Monday, November 16 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 65% chance to win and projects a 113-118 score (Trail Blazers – Timberwolves), about 231 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Trail Blazers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 3-0 for the Trail Blazers (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Trail Blazers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers), Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Timberwolves, but the Trail Blazers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Timberwolves 118 – 113 Trail Blazers, a margin of about 4.8 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / POR +3.0 per game
+2.2
Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home
+2.3
InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · POR: 2 out, 1 questionable
+0.3
Expected marginfor Timberwolves
+4.8

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+
34%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Trail Blazers win by 10+
12%

Stat comparison Current season

PORMIN
118.2
Points scored / game
118.7
114.7
Points allowed / game
112.6
51.1 %
Field goal %
47.3 %
38.9 %
3-point %
38.4 %
43.7
3-pointers attempted / game
40.6
70.8 %
Free throw %
62.7 %
46.3
Rebounds / game
51.6
30.7
Assists / game
27.0
8.3
Steals / game
9.2
2.7
Blocks / game
4.4
13.3
Turnovers / game
16.2

Players to watch

Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3rebounds
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
POR
WSAC110-98LGS128-118WPHX124-83WSAC128-120WLAL136-129
MIN
WMIA131-106WORL115-93WTOR117-94LCLE127-125 OTLGS119-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 16PORthis gameMINNov 17PORupcomingMINDec 1MINupcomingPORFeb 2MINupcomingPOR

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
POR 35% · MIN 65%
ESPN BPI
POR 44% · MIN 56%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PORMIN
3-0Record3-2
118.2Points scored / game118.7
114.7Points allowed / game112.6
+3.0Adjusted margin / game+5.2
W3Current streakL2
3-0Last 10 games3-2
2-0 roadHome / road record1-1 home
42-40 (-0.3)Last season49-33 (+3.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Portland Trail Blazers Injury report Trail Blazers

Chris Youngblood GOut
Shaedon Sharpe GOut
Robert Williams III CDay-To-Day

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut
Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.