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Wizards vs Hawks prediction NBA · Monday, February 1

Mon, Feb 1 · 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards
2-3 · away
Projected score
110-124
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · home
13% win WSHwin ATL 87%
FavoriteATL
Projected margin14.0
Projected total233
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Monday, February 1 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 87% chance to win and projects a 110-124 score (Wizards – Hawks), about 233 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Hawks L3, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 17% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hawks dominate this matchup. The model projects Hawks 124 – 110 Wizards, a margin of about 14.0 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

  • The overall strength gap (+2.7 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / WSH -7.7 per game
+10.4
Home-court advantageHawks at home
+2.3
InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable
+1.3
Expected marginfor Hawks
+14.0

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+
63%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
17%
Wizards win by 10+
3%

Stat comparison Current season

WSHATL
113.1
Points scored / game
119.0
122.2
Points allowed / game
115.8
48.0 %
Field goal %
46.9 %
28.5 %
3-point %
34.8 %
31.6
3-pointers attempted / game
41.4
83.1 %
Free throw %
72.8 %
40.0
Rebounds / game
41.4
25.8
Assists / game
32.2
7.4
Steals / game
10.2
5.6
Blocks / game
3.6
13.6
Turnovers / game
14.0

Players to watch

Wizards
Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game
Trae YoungG · #310.4assists
Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds
Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
WSH
WMIL128-116LTOR112-102WCHI124-120LCHA110-103LCLE121-111
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 4ATLupcomingWSHNov 6WSHupcomingATLJan 11ATLupcomingWSHFeb 1WSHthis gameATL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
WSH 13% · ATL 87%
ESPN BPI
WSH 27% · ATL 73%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSHATL
2-3Record2-3
113.1Points scored / game119.0
122.2Points allowed / game115.8
-7.7Adjusted margin / game+2.7
L2Current streakL3
2-3Last 10 games2-3
1-2 roadHome / road record0-2 home
17-65 (-12.0)Last season46-36 (+2.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Washington Wizards Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut
Tristan Vukcevic FOut
Jamir Watkins GOut
Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.