Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Wizards vs Hawks prediction NBA · Friday, November 6

Fri, Nov 6 · 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · MNMT

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

110-124

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · home

13% win WSHwin ATL 87%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin14.0

Projected total233

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Friday, November 6 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 87% chance to win and projects a 110-124 score (Wizards – Hawks), about 233 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Hawks L3, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 17% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hawks dominate this matchup. The model projects Hawks 124 – 110 Wizards, a margin of about 14.0 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+2.7 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / WSH -7.7 per game

+10.4

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Hawks

+14.0

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

63%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

17%

Wizards win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

WSHATL

113.1

Points scored / game

119.0

122.2

Points allowed / game

115.8

48.0 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

28.5 %

3-point %

34.8 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

83.1 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

41.4

25.8

Assists / game

32.2

7.4

Steals / game

10.2

5.6

Blocks / game

3.6

13.6

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 13% · ATL 87%

ESPN BPI

WSH 27% · ATL 73%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		ATL
2-3	Record	2-3
113.1	Points scored / game	119.0
122.2	Points allowed / game	115.8
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
L2	Current streak	L3
2-3	Last 10 games	2-3
1-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.