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Hawks vs Wizards prediction NBA · Monday, January 11

Mon, Jan 11 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

120-112

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

73% win ATLwin WSH 27%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin7.8

Projected total232

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Monday, January 11 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 73% chance to win and projects a 120-112 score (Hawks – Wizards), about 232 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Wizards L2, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Hawks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Hawks start with a clear edge. The model projects Wizards 112 – 120 Hawks, a margin of about 7.8 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +2.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / ATL +2.7 per game

-10.4

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

Back-to-backHawks played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Wizards

-7.8

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Hawks win by 10+

43%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLWSH

119.0

Points scored / game

113.1

115.8

Points allowed / game

122.2

46.9 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

34.8 %

3-point %

28.5 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

72.8 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

40.0

32.2

Assists / game

25.8

10.2

Steals / game

7.4

3.6

Blocks / game

5.6

14.0

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 73% · WSH 27%

ESPN BPI

ATL 61% · WSH 39%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		WSH
2-3	Record	2-3
119.0	Points scored / game	113.1
115.8	Points allowed / game	122.2
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
L3	Current streak	L2
2-3	Last 10 games	2-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.