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Hawks vs Wizards prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 4

Wed, Nov 4 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · MNMT
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · away
Projected score
121-112
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards
2-3 · home
77% win ATLwin WSH 23%
FavoriteATL
Projected margin9.4
Projected total233
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Wednesday, November 4 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 77% chance to win and projects a 121-112 score (Hawks – Wizards), about 233 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Wizards L2, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hawks dominate this matchup. The model projects Wizards 112 – 121 Hawks, a margin of about 9.4 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

  • The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +2.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards
Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / ATL +2.7 per game
-10.4
Home-court advantageWizards at home
+2.3
InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable
-1.3
Expected marginfor Wizards
-9.4

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+
6%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
24%
Hawks win by 10+
48%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLWSH
119.0
Points scored / game
113.1
115.8
Points allowed / game
122.2
46.9 %
Field goal %
48.0 %
34.8 %
3-point %
28.5 %
41.4
3-pointers attempted / game
31.6
72.8 %
Free throw %
83.1 %
41.4
Rebounds / game
40.0
32.2
Assists / game
25.8
10.2
Steals / game
7.4
3.6
Blocks / game
5.6
14.0
Turnovers / game
13.6

Players to watch

Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds
Wizards
Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game
Trae YoungG · #310.4assists
Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117
WSH
WMIL128-116LTOR112-102WCHI124-120LCHA110-103LCLE121-111

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 4ATLthis gameWSHNov 6WSHupcomingATLJan 11ATLupcomingWSHFeb 1WSHupcomingATL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
ATL 77% · WSH 23%
ESPN BPI
ATL 65% · WSH 36%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATLWSH
2-3Record2-3
119.0Points scored / game113.1
115.8Points allowed / game122.2
+2.7Adjusted margin / game-7.7
L3Current streakL2
2-3Last 10 games2-3
2-1 roadHome / road record1-1 home
46-36 (+2.4)Last season17-65 (-12.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Washington Wizards Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut
Tristan Vukcevic FOut
Jamir Watkins GOut
Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.