Bulls vs Raptors prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 19
At a glance
The Toronto Raptors (3-1) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Tuesday, January 19 at 7:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 89% chance to win and projects a 108-123 score (Bulls – Raptors), about 231 total points. This season, the Raptors are 2-0 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Raptors and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Raptors W1, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 15% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls), Nic Claxton (Bulls), Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) and Nate Bittle (Raptors). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Raptors start with a clear edge. The model projects Raptors 123 – 108 Bulls, a margin of about 15.2 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+5.0 vs -7.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
CHITOR
Players to watch
Bulls
Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game
Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists
Jalen SmithF · #258.2reboundsRaptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsRecent form
CHI
135-92W
132-125L
124-120L
134-99L
133-127TOR
129-125W
135-92W112-102L
117-94W
129-99Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| CHI | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| 115.6 | Points scored / game | 115.4 |
| 124.1 | Points allowed / game | 109.5 |
| -7.2 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.0 |
| L3 | Current streak | W1 |
| 1-4 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 1-2 road | Home / road record | 2-0 home |
| 31-51 (-5.2) | Last season | 46-36 (+2.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Bulls
Injury report Raptors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.