Raptors vs Bulls prediction NBA · Sunday, January 17
At a glance
The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Sunday, January 17 at 3:30 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 80% chance to win and projects a 121-110 score (Raptors – Bulls), about 231 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Bulls L3, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 22% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Raptors dominate this matchup. The model projects Bulls 110 – 121 Raptors, a margin of about 10.6 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs +5.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
TORCHI
Players to watch
Raptors
RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists
Scottie BarnesF · #47.2reboundsBulls
Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game
Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists
Jalen SmithF · #258.2reboundsRecent form
TOR
129-125W
135-92W
112-102L
117-94W
129-99CHI
135-92W
132-125L124-120L
134-99L
133-127Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| TOR | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 115.4 | Points scored / game | 115.6 |
| 109.5 | Points allowed / game | 124.1 |
| +5.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -7.2 |
| W1 | Current streak | L3 |
| 3-1 | Last 10 games | 1-4 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 46-36 (+2.8) | Last season | 31-51 (-5.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Raptors
Injury report Bulls
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.