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Celtics vs Wizards prediction NBA · Monday, January 18

Mon, Jan 18 · 3:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · MNMT

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

121-105

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

90% win BOSwin WSH 10%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin15.8

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Monday, January 18 at 3:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 90% chance to win and projects a 121-105 score (Celtics – Wizards), about 227 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Wizards L2, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 15% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Wizards played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Celtics dominate this matchup. The model projects Wizards 105 – 121 Celtics, a margin of about 15.8 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / BOS +6.6 per game

-14.3

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

Back-to-backWizards played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

-2.2

Expected marginfor Wizards

-15.8

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

15%

Celtics win by 10+

68%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSWSH

116.1

Points scored / game

113.1

108.3

Points allowed / game

122.2

46.5 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

38.6 %

3-point %

28.5 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

76.0 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

40.0

27.8

Assists / game

25.8

9.0

Steals / game

7.4

3.8

Blocks / game

5.6

15.5

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 90% · WSH 10%

ESPN BPI

BOS 74% · WSH 26%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOS		WSH
3-1	Record	2-3
116.1	Points scored / game	113.1
108.3	Points allowed / game	122.2
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
W3	Current streak	L2
3-1	Last 10 games	2-3
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.