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Wizards vs Celtics prediction NBA · Monday, December 14

Mon, Dec 14 · 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · MNMT

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

105-122

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

8% win WSHwin BOS 92%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin17.2

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Monday, December 14 at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 92% chance to win and projects a 105-122 score (Wizards – Celtics), about 227 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Celtics W3, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 13% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Celtics played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Celtics dominate this matchup. The model projects Celtics 122 – 105 Wizards, a margin of about 17.2 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / WSH -7.7 per game

+14.3

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

Back-to-backCeltics played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Celtics

+17.2

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

72%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

13%

Wizards win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

WSHBOS

113.1

Points scored / game

116.1

122.2

Points allowed / game

108.3

48.0 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

28.5 %

3-point %

38.6 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

83.1 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

44.3

25.8

Assists / game

27.8

7.4

Steals / game

9.0

5.6

Blocks / game

3.8

13.6

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 8% · BOS 92%

ESPN BPI

WSH 21% · BOS 79%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		BOS
2-3	Record	3-1
113.1	Points scored / game	116.1
122.2	Points allowed / game	108.3
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L2	Current streak	W3
2-3	Last 10 games	3-1
1-2 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.