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Rockets vs Thunder prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 13

Wed, Jan 13 · 9:30 PM ETPaycom Center · ESPN, KSBI, Thunder App

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

110-112

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 · home

44% win HOUwin OKC 56%

FavoriteOKC

Projected margin1.8

Projected total222

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Wednesday, January 13 at 9:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 56% chance to win and projects a 110-112 score (Rockets – Thunder), about 222 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Thunder L1, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder) and Thomas Sorber (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Thunder 112 – 110 Rockets, a margin of about 1.8 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other).

The Rockets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder

Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +7.6 / HOU +6.7 per game

+0.9

Home-court advantageThunder at home

+2.3

InjuriesOKC: 5 out, 1 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

-1.4

Expected marginfor Thunder

+1.8

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+

25%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Rockets win by 10+

17%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUOKC

117.5

Points scored / game

115.8

109.7

Points allowed / game

106.9

51.7 %

Field goal %

44.0 %

40.4 %

3-point %

30.9 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

32.4

84.7 %

Free throw %

86.4 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

46.0

28.2

Assists / game

22.0

10.2

Steals / game

8.4

6.0

Blocks / game

6.8

15.8

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game

Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists

Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

OKC

116-104W

96-84W

108-101W

125-114L

120-96

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 44% · OKC 56%

ESPN BPI

HOU 37% · OKC 63%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		OKC
5-0	Record	4-1
117.5	Points scored / game	115.8
109.7	Points allowed / game	106.9
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	+7.6
W5	Current streak	L1
5-0	Last 10 games	4-1
3-0 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	64-18 (+11.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut

Alex Caruso GOut

Thomas Sorber COut

Nikola Topic GOut

Cason Wallace GOut

Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.