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Thunder vs Rockets prediction NBA · Saturday, October 31

Sat, Oct 31 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · NBA TV, Thunder App

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 · away

Projected score

109-111

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

43% win OKCwin HOU 57%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin2.1

Projected total221

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Saturday, October 31 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 57% chance to win and projects a 109-111 score (Thunder – Rockets), about 221 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Rockets W5, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Rockets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Marcus Smart (Rockets)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Rockets 111 – 109 Thunder, a margin of about 2.1 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 221 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Rockets will be without Marcus Smart or Steven Adams. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).

The Thunder need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / OKC +7.6 per game

-0.9

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backRockets played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesHOU: 2 out, 1 questionable · OKC: 5 out, 1 questionable

+2.4

Expected marginfor Rockets

+2.1

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

26%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Thunder win by 10+

17%

Stat comparison Current season

OKCHOU

115.8

Points scored / game

117.5

106.9

Points allowed / game

109.7

44.0 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

30.9 %

3-point %

40.4 %

32.4

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

86.4 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

46.0

Rebounds / game

44.8

22.0

Assists / game

28.2

8.4

Steals / game

10.2

6.8

Blocks / game

6.0

13.6

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game

Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists

Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

OKC

116-104W

96-84W

108-101W

125-114L

120-96

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

OKC 43% · HOU 57%

ESPN BPI

OKC 55% · HOU 45%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

OKC		HOU
4-1	Record	5-0
115.8	Points scored / game	117.5
106.9	Points allowed / game	109.7
+7.6	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
L1	Current streak	W5
4-1	Last 10 games	5-0
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
64-18 (+11.1)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut

Alex Caruso GOut

Thomas Sorber COut

Nikola Topic GOut

Cason Wallace GOut

Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Injury report Rockets

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.