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Thunder vs Rockets prediction NBA · Sunday, December 27

Sun, Dec 27 · 3:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · KSBI, Thunder App
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
4-1 · away
Projected score
110-112
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets
5-0 · home
41% win OKCwin HOU 59%
FavoriteHOU
Projected margin2.8
Projected total222
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Sunday, December 27 at 3:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 59% chance to win and projects a 110-112 score (Thunder – Rockets), about 222 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Rockets W5, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Reed Sheppard (Rockets)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Rockets, but the Thunder have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Rockets 112 – 110 Thunder, a margin of about 2.8 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).

  • The Thunder need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / OKC +7.6 per game
-0.9
Home-court advantageRockets at home
+2.3
InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · OKC: 5 out, 1 questionable
+1.4
Expected marginfor Rockets
+2.8

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+
28%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Thunder win by 10+
15%

Stat comparison Current season

OKCHOU
115.8
Points scored / game
117.5
106.9
Points allowed / game
109.7
44.0 %
Field goal %
51.7 %
30.9 %
3-point %
40.4 %
32.4
3-pointers attempted / game
32.2
86.4 %
Free throw %
84.7 %
46.0
Rebounds / game
44.8
22.0
Assists / game
28.2
8.4
Steals / game
10.2
6.8
Blocks / game
6.0
13.6
Turnovers / game
15.8

Players to watch

Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds
Rockets
Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game
Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists
Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
OKC
WSA116-104WDEN96-84WLAC108-101WPHX125-114LDAL120-96
HOU
WDAL128-110WSA114-110WATL121-114WATL120-110WMIL132-100

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Oct 31OKCupcomingHOUDec 27OKCthis gameHOUJan 13HOUupcomingOKC

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
OKC 41% · HOU 59%
ESPN BPI
OKC 48% · HOU 52%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

OKCHOU
4-1Record5-0
115.8Points scored / game117.5
106.9Points allowed / game109.7
+7.6Adjusted margin / game+6.7
L1Current streakW5
4-1Last 10 games5-0
1-1 roadHome / road record2-0 home
64-18 (+11.1)Last season52-30 (+5.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut
Alex Caruso GOut
Thomas Sorber COut
Nikola Topic GOut
Cason Wallace GOut
Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Houston Rockets Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut
Marcus Smart GOut
Steven Adams COut
Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.