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Pelicans vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Wednesday, October 14

FinalAmerican Airlines Center · NBA TV, KFAA-TV, MavsTV, GCSEN, Pelicans.com
45% win NOwin DAL 55%
FavoriteDAL
Projected margin1.4
Projected total235
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks host the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday, October 14 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Pelicans 101 – Mavericks 97. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Mavericks a 55% chance to win: prediction missed.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Mavericks 118 – 117 Pelicans, a margin of about 1.4 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -4.7 / NO -3.8 per game
-0.9
Home-court advantageMavericks at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Mavericks
+1.4

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+
25%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Pelicans win by 10+
18%

Stat comparison Current season

NODAL
115.5
Points scored / game
114.1
120.0
Points allowed / game
119.6
46.5 %
Field goal %
49.0 %
29.0 %
3-point %
34.6 %
31.0
3-pointers attempted / game
38.2
83.6 %
Free throw %
76.7 %
44.3
Rebounds / game
44.2
23.5
Assists / game
27.6
12.3
Steals / game
9.0
4.8
Blocks / game
7.4
16.5
Turnovers / game
15.6

Top performers

Pelicans
Jeremiah FearsG · #016pts / game
Jeremiah FearsG · #05assists
Derik QueenC · #2211rebounds
Mavericks
Tobi LawalF · #3316pts / game
Sergio de LarreaF · #556assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #257rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
NO
No games played yet.
DAL
No games played yet.

Team comparison

NODAL
2-1Record1-2
115.5Points scored / game114.1
120.0Points allowed / game119.6
-3.8Adjusted margin / game-4.7
–Current streak–
–Last 10 games–
–Home / road record–
26-56 (-4.5)Last season26-56 (-5.5)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

No injuries reported.

Dallas Mavericks Injury report Mavericks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.