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Mavericks vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Friday, January 22

Fri, Jan 22 · 8:00 PM ETSmoothie King Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

114-117

New Orleans Pelicans

0-4 · home

43% win DALwin NO 57%

FavoriteNO

Projected margin2.3

Projected total231

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Friday, January 22 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pelicans a 57% chance to win and projects a 114-117 score (Mavericks – Pelicans), about 231 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Dejounte Murray (Pelicans) and Jordan Poole (Pelicans)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Pelicans 117 – 114 Mavericks, a margin of about 2.3 points in favor of the Pelicans and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Mavericks' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pelicans

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -4.1 / DAL -2.8 per game

-1.3

Home-court advantagePelicans at home

+2.3

InjuriesNO: 3 out, 0 questionable · DAL: 4 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Pelicans

+2.3

Scenarios

Pelicans win by 10+

27%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Mavericks win by 10+

16%

Stat comparison Current season

DALNO

114.1

Points scored / game

115.7

117.4

Points allowed / game

120.5

49.0 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

34.6 %

3-point %

29.0 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

31.0

76.7 %

Free throw %

83.6 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

44.3

27.6

Assists / game

23.5

9.0

Steals / game

12.3

7.4

Blocks / game

4.8

15.6

Turnovers / game

16.5

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Pelicans

Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game

Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists

Derik QueenC · #229.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

107-106L

123-120L

120-119L

141-135 OTL DEN

104-91

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 43% · NO 57%

ESPN BPI

DAL 61% · NO 39%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

DAL		NO
3-2	Record	0-4
114.1	Points scored / game	115.7
117.4	Points allowed / game	120.5
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	-4.1
W2	Current streak	L4
3-2	Last 10 games	0-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	26-56 (-4.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Sergio de Larrea FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Pelicans

Dejounte Murray GOut

Jordan Poole GOut

Yves Missi COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.