Pelicans vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Saturday, March 13
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Saturday, March 13 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Mavericks a 62% chance to win and projects a 113-117 score (Pelicans – Mavericks), about 230 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pelicans played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans), Yves Missi (Pelicans), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks) and Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Mavericks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 117 – 113 Pelicans, a margin of about 3.9 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pelicans played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Mavericks' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NODAL
Players to watch
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsMavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / gameCooper FlaggF · #326.8assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8reboundsRecent form
NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91DAL
128-110W121-105L
122-106W
113-109W
120-96Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
DAL
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| NO | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| 115.7 | Points scored / game | 114.1 |
| 120.5 | Points allowed / game | 117.4 |
| -4.1 | Adjusted margin / game | -2.8 |
| L4 | Current streak | W2 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 3-2 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 1-1 home |
| 26-56 (-4.5) | Last season | 26-56 (-5.5) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pelicans
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.