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Pelicans vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Friday, March 26

Fri, Mar 26 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV, GCSEN, Pelicans.com
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
0-4 · away
Projected score
114-117
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks
3-2 · home
43% win NOwin DAL 57%
FavoriteDAL
Projected margin2.3
Projected total231
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Friday, March 26 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Mavericks a 57% chance to win and projects a 114-117 score (Pelicans – Mavericks), about 231 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dejounte Murray (Pelicans), Jordan Poole (Pelicans), Yves Missi (Pelicans), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks) and Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Mavericks 117 – 114 Pelicans, a margin of about 2.3 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). The Pelicans will be without Dejounte Murray or Jordan Poole (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Mavericks' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / NO -4.1 per game
+1.3
Home-court advantageMavericks at home
+2.3
InjuriesDAL: 4 out, 1 questionable · NO: 3 out, 0 questionable
-1.3
Expected marginfor Mavericks
+2.3

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+
27%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Pelicans win by 10+
16%

Stat comparison Current season

NODAL
115.7
Points scored / game
114.1
120.5
Points allowed / game
117.4
46.5 %
Field goal %
49.0 %
29.0 %
3-point %
34.6 %
31.0
3-pointers attempted / game
38.2
83.6 %
Free throw %
76.7 %
44.3
Rebounds / game
44.2
23.5
Assists / game
27.6
12.3
Steals / game
9.0
4.8
Blocks / game
7.4
16.5
Turnovers / game
15.6

Players to watch

Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2rebounds
Mavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game
Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
NO
WWSH107-106LIND123-120LUTAH120-119LDEN141-135 OTLDEN104-91
DAL
LHOU128-110WIND121-105LSA122-106WMIA113-109WOKC120-96

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Jan 4DALupcomingNOJan 22DALupcomingNOMar 13NOupcomingDALMar 26NOthis gameDAL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
NO 43% · DAL 57%
ESPN BPI
NO 34% · DAL 67%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NODAL
0-4Record3-2
115.7Points scored / game114.1
120.5Points allowed / game117.4
-4.1Adjusted margin / game-2.8
L4Current streakW2
0-4Last 10 games3-2
0-2 roadHome / road record1-1 home
26-56 (-4.5)Last season26-56 (-5.5)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

Dejounte Murray GOut
Jordan Poole GOut
Yves Missi COut

Dallas Mavericks Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut
Santi Aldama FOut
Sergio de Larrea FOut
Dereck Lively II COut
Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.