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Nuggets vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Saturday, April 25

FinalTarget Center · ABC, ESPN
46% win DENwin MIN 54%
FavoriteMIN
Projected margin1.3
Projected total235
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (51-34) host the Denver Nuggets (55-30) on Saturday, April 25 at 8:30 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. Final score: Nuggets 96 – Timberwolves 112. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Timberwolves a 54% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Timberwolves are 27-15 at home and the Nuggets are 26-16 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Timberwolves and 8-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Timberwolves W2, Nuggets L2).

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Timberwolves 118 – 117 Nuggets, a margin of about 1.3 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Nuggets' offense (121.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +3.0 / DEN +4.0 per game
-1.0
Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Timberwolves
+1.3

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+
24%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Nuggets win by 10+
18%

Stat comparison Current season

DENMIN
121.5
Points scored / game
117.4
116.8
Points allowed / game
113.8
45.8 %
Field goal %
47.3 %
32.8 %
3-point %
38.4 %
34.3
3-pointers attempted / game
40.6
79.6 %
Free throw %
62.7 %
44.5
Rebounds / game
51.6
26.0
Assists / game
27.0
10.0
Steals / game
9.2
4.8
Blocks / game
4.4
15.3
Turnovers / game
16.2

Top performers

Nuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2730pts / game
Nikola JokicC · #159assists
Nikola JokicC · #1515rebounds
Timberwolves
Ayo DosunmuG · #1343pts / game
Bones HylandG · #87assists
Rudy GobertC · #2715rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
DEN
No games played yet.
MIN
No games played yet.

Team comparison

DENMIN
55-30Record51-34
121.5Points scored / game117.4
116.8Points allowed / game113.8
+4.0Adjusted margin / game+3.0
L2Current streakW2
8-2Last 10 games5-5
26-16 roadHome / road record27-15 home
50-32 (+3.9)Last season49-33 (+5.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Denver Nuggets Injury report Nuggets

No injuries reported.

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.