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Timberwolves vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Sunday, March 1

FinalBall Arena · ABC
43% win MINwin DEN 57%
FavoriteDEN
Projected margin2.2
Projected total234
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (37-23) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (37-23) on Sunday, March 1 at 3:30 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. Final score: Timberwolves 117 – Nuggets 108. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Nuggets a 57% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Nuggets are 16-11 at home and the Timberwolves are 17-12 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Nuggets and 6-4 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Nuggets L1, Timberwolves W2).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Nuggets 118 – 116 Timberwolves, a margin of about 2.2 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 234 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +3.8 / MIN +3.9 per game
-0.1
Home-court advantageNuggets at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Nuggets
+2.2

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+
27%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Timberwolves win by 10+
16%

Stat comparison Current season

MINDEN
118.4
Points scored / game
120.6
113.8
Points allowed / game
116.1
47.3 %
Field goal %
45.8 %
38.4 %
3-point %
32.8 %
40.6
3-pointers attempted / game
34.3
62.7 %
Free throw %
79.6 %
51.6
Rebounds / game
44.5
27.0
Assists / game
26.0
9.2
Steals / game
10.0
4.4
Blocks / game
4.8
16.2
Turnovers / game
15.3

Top performers

Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #521pts / game
Julius RandleF · #307assists
Rudy GobertC · #2715rebounds
Nuggets
Nikola JokicC · #1535pts / game
Nikola JokicC · #159assists
Nikola JokicC · #1513rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIN
No games played yet.
DEN
No games played yet.

Team comparison

MINDEN
37-23Record37-23
118.4Points scored / game120.6
113.8Points allowed / game116.1
+3.9Adjusted margin / game+3.8
W2Current streakL1
6-4Last 10 games4-6
17-12 roadHome / road record16-11 home
49-33 (+5.0)Last season50-32 (+3.9)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

No injuries reported.

Denver Nuggets Injury report Nuggets

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.