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Warriors vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Sunday, December 14

FinalModa Center · NBC Sports BA, KUNP 16
58% win GSwin POR 42%
FavoriteGS
Projected margin2.6
Projected total230
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Portland Trail Blazers (9-16) host the Golden State Warriors (13-13) on Sunday, December 14 at 9:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. Final score: Warriors 131 – Trail Blazers 136. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Warriors a 58% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Trail Blazers are 3-6 at home and the Warriors are 6-9 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 3-7 for the Trail Blazers and 4-6 for the Warriors (current streaks: Trail Blazers L3, Warriors L1).

The analysis Model

The Warriors are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Trail Blazers 114 – 116 Warriors, a margin of about 2.6 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The overall strength gap (-3.1 vs +1.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Trail Blazers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)POR -3.1 / GS +1.7 per game
-4.9
Home-court advantageTrail Blazers at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Trail Blazers
-2.6

Scenarios

Trail Blazers win by 10+
16%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Warriors win by 10+
28%

Stat comparison Current season

GSPOR
113.8
Points scored / game
115.3
111.7
Points allowed / game
119.0
45.0 %
Field goal %
51.1 %
36.9 %
3-point %
38.9 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
43.7
82.2 %
Free throw %
70.8 %
43.8
Rebounds / game
46.3
25.6
Assists / game
30.7
9.6
Steals / game
8.3
3.8
Blocks / game
2.7
16.8
Turnovers / game
13.3

Top performers

Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3048pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #237assists
Draymond GreenF · #238rebounds
Trail Blazers
Shaedon SharpeG · #1735pts / game
Deni AvdijaF · #88assists
Robert Williams IIIC · #3511rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
GS
No games played yet.
POR
No games played yet.

Team comparison

GSPOR
13-13Record9-16
113.8Points scored / game115.3
111.7Points allowed / game119.0
+1.7Adjusted margin / game-3.1
L1Current streakL3
4-6Last 10 games3-7
6-9 roadHome / road record3-6 home
48-34 (+3.3)Last season36-46 (-3.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Golden State Warriors Injury report Warriors

No injuries reported.

Portland Trail Blazers Injury report Trail Blazers

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.