Cavaliers vs Celtics prediction NBA · Sunday, October 12
FinalTD Garden · ESPN, NBC Sports BO, FanDuel SN OH
44% win CLEwin BOS 56%
FavoriteBOS
Projected margin1.9
Projected total229
ConfidenceLow
At a glance
The Boston Celtics host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday, October 12 at 7:00 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. Final score: Cavaliers 107 – Celtics 138. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Celtics a 56% chance to win: prediction correct.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Celtics 115 – 113 Cavaliers, a margin of about 1.9 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Cavaliers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Cavaliers' offense (121.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.2 pts/game).
What tips the balance
In points, positive = edge Celtics
Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +7.7 / CLE +8.1 per game
-0.4
Home-court advantageCeltics at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Celtics
+1.9
Scenarios
Celtics win by 10+
26%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Cavaliers win by 10+
17%
Stat comparison Current season
CLEBOS
121.9116.3
112.4107.2
46.8 %46.5 %
36.7 %38.6 %
37.541.5
79.3 %76.0 %
47.044.3
26.327.8
8.89.0
7.53.8
17.315.5
Top performers
Cavaliers
Jaylon TysonG · #2016pts / gameJaylon TysonG · #204assists
Larry Nance Jr.F · #229reboundsCeltics
Anfernee SimonsG · #521pts / game
Jaylen BrownG · #76assists
Derrick WhiteG · #97reboundsRecent form
Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
CLENo games played yet.
BOSNo games played yet.
CLE
Team comparison
| CLE | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | Record | 2-1 |
| 121.9 | Points scored / game | 116.3 |
| 112.4 | Points allowed / game | 107.2 |
| +8.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +7.7 |
| – | Current streak | – |
| – | Last 10 games | – |
| – | Home / road record | – |
| 64-18 (+9.5) | Last season | 61-21 (+9.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Cavaliers
No injuries reported.
Injury report Celtics
No injuries reported.
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.